Bias: The Efficiency Trap

What is a bias?

A bias is the tendency or a distortion that causes you to lean in a certain direction. Biases stem from our personal experiences, cultural background, or social influences. Simply, biases are another attempt in our world to be efficient.

When we rely on biases, we’re essentially taking shortcuts in our thinking. Instead of carefully analyzing all available information and considering multiple perspectives, we rely on the time-saving efficiency of mental shortcuts to make decisions quickly. This can be beneficial in situations where we need to make rapid judgments or decisions.

Biases can cause us to overlook important information, make assumptions without sufficient evidence, or ignore alternative viewpoints. Biases kill creativity, imagination and thoughtfulness, all skills vital to foresight.

While they can help us make decisions efficiently, especially in an emergency, they can also lead to flawed observations and decision-making. It’s essential when practicing foresight to be aware of our biases and to strive for objectivity in our thinking to ensure we are open to a future that’s different than today.

What are some examples of types of bias?

There are many types of bias, but some common ones are:

Confirmation bias: The tendency to seek out information that confirms our existing beliefs and to ignore or dismiss information that contradicts them. It is common to ignore news stories, or factual information that exists that contradicts a worldview or ideal we hold dearly.
Anchoring bias: The tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information we encounter when making decisions. I often see anchoring bias when people refer to something they learned in elementary or middle school. Once we learn something, we have to remain open to revising that understanding.
Availability heuristic: The tendency to judge the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind. We tend to overestimate the probability of events that are easily recalled or that we’ve heard about recently. We’re also more likely to remember vivid, recent, or emotionally charged events.
Hindsight bias: The tendency to believe that we could have predicted an outcome after it has occurred. Our memories are often shaped by our current beliefs and knowledge. After an event occurs, we may selectively remember information that supports our current understanding. After a significant event, we may convince ourselves that we had a “gut feeling” or other premonition about the outcome.
Groupthink: The tendency for groups to make decisions that are based on consensus rather than careful deliberation. Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs when a group of people reach a consensus without critically evaluating alternative viewpoints or considering the potential consequences of their choices. In groupthink, often the group dismisses any doubts or criticisms that challenge their consensus. Group dynamics and rewards can encourage group think because it’s a form of conformity. Group think can lead to poor decision-making and even disastrous outcomes.
Overconfidence bias: The tendency to overestimate one’s abilities or knowledge.
Cognitive rigidity: The inability to adapt one’s thinking to new situations or information.

Educated Incapacity

Educated incapacity is one of the most interesting phenomenons I’ve learned about in my years working in foresight. It happens when someone’s education or knowledge actually hinders their ability to think creatively or outside of conventional frameworks. While not a strict bias, it can be related to confirmation bias or groupthink; these biases can lead people to cling to existing beliefs or perspectives, even when they are no longer helpful or accurate. Here’s how:

Confirmation bias: Highly educated individuals might be more likely to seek out information that confirms their existing beliefs, making it difficult for them to consider alternative perspectives.
Groupthink: When individuals in a highly educated group share similar backgrounds and beliefs, they may be more prone to groupthink, which can lead to a lack of creativity and critical thinking.

It’s important to note that education and experience are a powerful tool for fostering creativity and critical thinking. However, as we become more experienced and successful in a field, we carry with us shortcuts (biases) based on historical information that helps us make quick decisions with complex information.

However, it is not uncommon for educated incapacity to limit a person’s ability to imagine the future or see the future unfolding right in front of them. We can get so wrapped up in day-to-day execution, and building on the success of the information we’ve collected in the past, we can miss both subtle and overt, as well as obvious and compelling (to outsiders) developments.

Why do biases and educated incapacity matter in foresight?

Those who are successful in their fields have to be intentional to overcome biases and educated incapacity, especially when working in a fast-paced, competitive, short-term results-focused industry. Foresight is not efficient. Foresight, even strategic foresight, doesn’t offer a clear-cut direction. The insights we use to set a strategic direction come from thoughtful conversations, the slower, inefficient pace of navigating uncertainty ambiguity.

However, organizations who commit to using foresight are more prepared for the future because they’ve slowed down, taken focus off of the short-term, to thoughtfully consider and discuss the changes identified with signals of change and emerging trends. Understanding what’s changing, considering why it’s changing, and how that’s impacting their customers and industry, helps a company prepare for the future.

Rather than inefficiently reacting when you’re behind the curve, build some inefficient discovery into your regular strategic discussions. Regularly take time to identify and explore these changes as they’re unfolding. Challenge your strategic direction against the implications and document anticipated outcomes. Become more agile by adjusting the bets you’ve placed on the future rather than taking a big loss.